15 000 bets

I just passed 15 000 bets registered at Bettin.gs. They are divided on a quite big amount of tipsters and services, but for some of them I can be pretty sure I’m reaching some kind of statistical significance.

Ordered by number of bets, here are the top tipsters based on those 15 013 bets.

Most active tipsters from the first 15 000 bets.
Most active tipsters from the first 15 013 bets.

Nice to see most of them are in the green, including my own bets (listed as “No tipster”), with a 3.55% ROI. Better than many paid tipsters, ironically. Also interesting to see that there are a few up there I’m not following anymore, for other reasons than the results.

The first bets were registered in January 2014, so it’s taken a while to reach it. Also worth noticing this is just the official portfolio.  I have another account to track potential tipsters. Those numbers are a less nice to analyze for obvious reasons. I might dig a little deeper into that here some time as well.

September review: +88.5 units (+7.54%)

88 units is pretty close to what I’m aiming for per month, so just looking at the numbers I’m happy. There is more to see if you look a bit closer though.

One of the first thing that happened this September was that I managed to lay France as they got a draw against Luxembourg, which meant 100 units profit in one move. A nice play (I love laying ridiculously huge favorites) that I’m very happy with, but that also means I personally pulled off all the profit myself this month and that’s not how this portfolio thing is suppose to work.

Tipsters

Looking a little closer at the numbers per tipster, this is how it looks:

I’ve missed a couple of winning bets from Jason James, so there’s room for improvement there. Golf Betting Expert found a 75 odds winner, which made up  much of the month’s profit and notably Pro Footy Tips had a lovely football month.

The same can’t be said for Football Investor and Winabobatoo, who has had a car crash opening of the season. Luckily it’s super early still.

Bet Alchemist lost a few units, but nothing spectacular about that. He’s a had a cracking period so far so that’s nothing unexpected.

In other news…

Ice hockey season has started and I’ve got a new favorite live betting strategies that has shown to be very successful so far. I need more time to see if it holds up over time, but nevertheless it’s great to have hockey going again.

All in all a decent month in many ways and still many ways to improve. Here’s to the next one, it’s time for high season!

August review: -11,7 units (-1,2% ROI)

Currently there are 9 tipsters in the portfolio. More than half of them are betting in the higher odds range, which means there are, and always will be, high swings (up and downs) when it comes to results and, consequently, the bankroll. 

August was a prime example of this, as the first week saw a steady growth and was followed by two and a half week of constant losses, which in turn was followed by a massive weekend that basically turned everything around. In the end the month ended in a small loss, which isn’t too bad considering how hopeless things felt during the long downturn.

I’ve said it before, and I say it again; Two of the most important thing with managing a betting portfolio is the long term view and bankroll management.

Here are the numbers for the month:


September means football season ramping up so we will absolutely see an increase in the number of bets. The strike rate will hopefully go up as well, as football betting usually are in the lower odds range. 

Sports


Looking at sports it’s quite easy to see where the losses came from mainly. Golf Betting Expert, who has delivered excellent results previously had a tough month for once. Just 3 won bets from 62 is a bit extreme of course, but again – long term.

Tipsters


Horse racing actually produced a profit, but looking a bit closer that’s much thanks to the newest tipster on the block – Bet Alchemist.

Jason James also had a very nice month, and the official numbers are even better. Sadly I was offline in the Nordic mountains and missed out on 25 units of profit that weekend. Cest la vie.

Master Racing Tipster had a rare dip in performance, as had All Weather Profits. Pro Footy Tips delivered some nice number in the end of the month, including an outsider double during that fantastic weekend I mentioned and helped save the month.

All in all, a very interesting month in many ways and I’m looking forward to the next one which will include more football. 

In other news…

I’ve had the opportunity to do some own trading this month which showed excellent results. I’m hoping these numbers are a sign of something good to come and that I will find the time to actually sit down and do it again many times during the upcoming football season.


That’s all for now. Cheers!

July review: +57,8 units (+6,47% ROI)

I have been skeptical  about a couple of the services I follow for a while now  and this month was the one that finally made the decision to actually kick them out of the portfolio easy. More on that a bit later, because July was actually a nice month betting-wise.

Roughly 58 units plus from 274 bets, which is below the average, but that’ll even out as soon as the football season start (which is soon, can hardly wait). The ROI is pretty much right on target though.

Tipsters

All in all, it was another great month for Golf Betting Expert and All Weather Profits, despite the extreme low-season for the latter. Actually, all services delivered fine results with Jason James as the only exception, along with the kicked-out services Mr Odds and Premier Greyhound Tips.

Mr Odds has been underperforming for a long time now and as the results have become poorer, the formerly so well written analyses have disappeared, which has made me doubt the work being put into the service. That he has removed his stats from the front page of his blog now that they’re not as good anymore doesn’t really add confidence either. Good riddance.

Premier Greyhound Tips is probably a nice service to follow IF you have a working strategy for keeping bookie accounts unrestricted. I don’t even have bookie accounts and on the exchange (Betfair), it’s pretty hopeless to find value in the odds and low liquidity markets. Add a losing run to that and you have a very expensive service to follow. More sad to see this one go.

Sports

Looking at stats per sport and per tipster is looking very similar this month, unsurprisingly.

Changes

Conveniently enough, I’ll be able to replace one football tipster with another – namely Football Investor’s Combo system. A service I’ve been on previously (before this blog happened) and with a great reputation and historic results tracked by Secret Betting Club, I’m really looking forward to following it.

The greyhound tipster will be replaced by another long-odds horse racing service that’s been on my radar for a while. Also with a great reputation and proved numbers via SBCBet Alchemist. This makes my portfolio more horse racing heavy that what was planned, but there you go – value is value, numbers are numbers and profit is profit.

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June review: -49,6 units (-6,35% ROI)

I’m treading water here a bit. A loss for the month means I’m pretty much left on break-even over the last 4 months. Not good, not bad, but surely a bit boring.


There’s low activity among several of the tipsters, so in June there were only 271 bets placed, compared to the 350 I have planned for on a monthly average over a year. That could explain some of the results, but the fact is that almost all of it could be tracked back to Golf Betting Expert, who had a very poor month. Don’t read too much into the ROI column there though – there’s still a bug at Bettin.gs concerning each-way bets, which this tipster relies heavily on.

Tipsters


As you can see, not that bad apart from the golf. Premier Greyhound Tips made a loss but has shown signs of improvements lately, so hopefully his terrible slump of late is over.

Jason James had a stable month, as had Pro Footy Tips, with some great football results.

Master Racing Tipster continues to deliver – what a great service that is. I wrote a blog post about it recently, in case you missed it.

All Weather Profits is low on action at this time of year, but On The Oche keeps delivering units from the darts. Nice to have a low frequency/high quality service like that in the portfolio.

Mr Odds is my biggest question mark right now. His bets in Sweden are not giving much. I’ll make a review once the season is over (we’re about half-way) and make a decision then how to move forward. I’m mostly after his Swedish bets, as I’m having other sources to go on when it comes to England, so I’m not not sure I need the service going forward. We’ll see.

Sports


Horse racing is still the major sport in the portfolio, so I’ll be careful to add more services like that into the portfolio, even if I do have some looking really good under the microscope.

I always try to diversify my portfolio and I’m keeping an eye on services for American sports (NHL, NBA, MLB etc), another golf tipster, MMA and boxing at the moment. Really not sure any of them will get into the portfolio though.

We’ll see.

A closer look at: Master Racing Tipster

In these articles I’ll try to explain a little deeper the good and the bad about the tipsters I follow, why it’s the portfolio and how I think about keeping them in the future.

Master Racing Tipster

First off is Master Racing Tipster, part of the Betting Gods network.

This service has been part of my portfolio since September 2015 and has during this time become one of the cornerstones in it. Apart from a losing streak during last spring it’s been easy going all the way.

It took a while for me to figure out how to maximize the results from his tips and the info that comes with them, which probably has affected the profits that could have been bigger. Now I feel very confident in how to use the information, though. I won’t go into details here, as you probably need to figure out a strategy that works for yourself, but it’s no rocket science.

Over this period of time, he has delivered a healthy ROI of +8,37% from no less than 839 bets. The strike rate has been 26,1% and the average odds for all those bets are 5,28.

The 221,67 units of profit gives us a ROC (Return on Capital) of +148% based on the 150 units bank I have dedicated for this tipster.


All in all, these are numbers that I’m very satisfied with, but they could – and maybe should – be even better if I’d know the upsides and downsides from the start. But that’s how things work and why it’s fundamentally important to keep the long-term view. 

First, it takes time to actually know if the tipster’s any good. Then, it takes time to maximize the profits by adjusting stakes, timing and other practicalities. This often why Bettin.gs is such an invaluable tool for me. It lets me analyze odds intervals and trends and compare the progress to other services.

The good

The results speak for themselves really. An ROI of over +8% based on that number of bets makes it a service with a proven value and I’m planning to keep this service for a long time forward.

The service is very reliable and consistent, with emails being sent and structured at the same way at more or less the same time every day.

Practicalities

The tips come via email every night before the race, which means you do need to have your strategy clear if you plan to keep your bookie accounts unrestricted. Myself, I’m using exchanges only and it’s not always that easy to get on the advices odds, but I’ve found a way that works for me.

If you do manage to get the price advised, the returns will be quite a bit higher. Following the adviced odds would mean an ROI of over +30% according to the official stats (all historic bets and results are available to the public).

Summary

  • Extremely reliable service
  • Great results
  • Might not always get on the odds advised
  • Easy to follow
  • Absolutely part of my portfolio for a long time to come

More details and officiell information is available at Betting Gods.

May review: +14.5 units (-1.15%)

I really need get better at writing these reviews while the numbers are still fresh, but I’m finding it a bit hard to find the time.

Anyway, last month showed red numbers for the first time in 6 months, and it was a strange kind of month overall.

Betting Stats May 2017
Betting Stats May 2017

I was whining a bit about Jason James lack of form, but wow – the tables turned quickly. In May JJ was the only tipster along with On The Oche and Winabobatoo to show profit, and it was a huge one. 167 units from him alone, making up for almost everything the other tipsters lost.

Tipsters in May
Tipsters, May 2017

Note that I’ve stopped following Insiders Tennis, and that the calculations for each-way bets isn’t quite correct when it comes to ROI over at Bettin.gs (I’ll fix that).

The other tipsters

Master Racing Tipster had a nasty month. That’s fine, he’s stil one of the most reliable ones in the portfolio.

Pro Footy Tips has had a rought start since joining, but it’s too soon to draw any conclusions at all. I do like his style of betting on the underdogs.

Golf Betting Expert is close every week it seems. It’s just a matter of time before he hits another winner.

Premier Greyhound Tips is still struggling and has a lot to prove. The last few months have been hard for him.

All Weather Profits has shown to be a goldmine and I’m really happy to have taken him onboard. His style of betting on BSP suits me perfectly.

On The Oche is showing a profit this month and I’m kind of enjoying betting on darts actually – even if it’s a low frequent service.

While Winabobatoo‘s season’s over and I’ve had a hard time historically to make any bigger profits I’ve decided to keep the service for another season. It was an exceptionally hard season to bet on away teams (which is what much of the system I use it for is based on) and I want to give it another go to see if the model really works out for me longterm or not.

In other news

I just want to point out that I’ve moved out a few old tipsters that were still tracked by my official Bettin.gs account, that really should have been in my account to track trials and possible future tipsters. This has made my results look quite a bit better, but that’s not the reason I did it. I simply want to have the ones that are, or have been, a part of the portfolio included in the stats. Everyone else is tracked at other places.

 

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April review: +17 units (+1.1% ROI)

It’s hard to make big profits when the cornerstone in your portfolio are struggling. Jason James seems to be having a hard time getting things going this year and that shows in my portfolio’s result. A pretty straight-forward month overall, and I’m happy to be in profit.

Stats for April 2017
Stats for April 2017

I’m finding it a bit hard for some tipsters to optimize the odds. With Value Racing Tips for example, who’s so early with his tips, there’s the challenge to deal with it a good way on the exchanges. Get in too early and you ruin the markets, get in too late and you might miss the chance. I’ve noticed though that more often than not odds are rising, so my new tactic is to use BSP with a minimum odds set to the tipster’s recommended price (can’t understand that I haven’t noticed this feature before – probably because it’s only available on the desktop version of the site). So far so good for that experiment. Still not perfect for greyhound markets, but it’s easier than keeping check on all races in the evening and better than going for BSP, which is almost always way lower than the recommended prices when it decides to drop.

Tipsters
Tipsters

I’m taking on a new tipster from May. It’s another one from the Betting Gods network that I have faith in. A bigger odds football tipster finding value in more exotic markets. Suits me perfectly. Welcome aboard, Pro Footy Tips.

I’ve also decided to drop Insiders Tennis. Not because of the results, but a number of other factors that makes me a bit uncomfortable. They’re loud on Twitter when winning and dead silent when losing. A winning tactic for Twitter followers for sure, but that along with basing all stats on the best available odds instead of a more fair odds policy and an unpredictable amount of bets and some of them very hard to get on makes it a service not suitable for me. I’m sure they’re making money for a lot of customers though.

Not much more to say really. Many football seasons are over and it’ll be good to regroup over the summer. I have another football tipster in sight for next season as well, but more on that at a later point.

March review: +56 units (+3.3% ROI)

A fantastic month in many ways. The one dark cloud on the betting sky was very dark though.

1700 units staked, which is very much on target. The ROI is a bit below target, which is much due to the performance of Jason James.

I’m not worried though. It’s covered by the betting bank. Still, it’s a major downturn with 187 units down during March. Yes, -187 units. On the upside, the new tipster All Weather Profits showed a nice profit, as did Master Racing Tipster.

Golf Betting Expert also had another great month. His performance lately has been extreme, in a good way. Insiders Tennis was also a joy to follow during March.

All in all, a decent month which could have been great, but that’s the entire point of diversifying the portfolio. Onto the next one.