April review: -124 units (-7.1% ROI)

Result graph April 2018

I got a disappointing email from Betting Gods, where Pro Footy Tips decided to end his services from out out nowhere. Apart from it being unserious and unprofessional, it’s a shame for my personal portfolio as it was a very profitable service to follow. From 450 bets in 13 months, he made 231 units of profit for an ROI of +15.4% for me (minus charges).

So one football tipster shorter from now on. I’ll probably replace him somehow, but not sure how and when. Most likely not until the start of next season, after the summer.

April was a pretty poor month overall, with a long and frustrating losing streak wiping out the early winnings and causing the month to end in red.

Summary

448 bets with a strike rate of 29.2% is pretty close to normal, but too many tipsters showing too big losses to make it a good month.

General stats April 2018

Sports

Tipsters

Master Racing Tipster finally got on a good run, but that didn’t help much since Bet Alchemist, Nishi Kori, Football Investor and not least Golf Betting Expert showed some blood red numbers.

Football Investor has had a very poor season and that isn’t quite like him at all if you look at the previous seasons. Looking forward to the end of season review to hear his comments. I’m undecided to keep him in the portfolio, partly based on the trend this year but also that it’s a low frequent service and if a more active tipster shows up, I might go for that instead.

 

Also, it’s time for Golf Betting Expert to step up. Swingform on the other hand nailed the 3 first places in a tournament this month.

May has started nicely, let’s hope it’s a sign of better times to come.

Update: Forgot to mention that I’ve changed the staking strategy a bit for Bet Alchemist. Despite the fact that there are bigger wins to be expected in the long run by betting win only, I’ve decided to go for an each-way strategy instead. I find the swings a bit too extreme for my own liking. I prefer a more steady development in this portfolio. I’ve also reduced the stakes a bit. They are 1 unit each way for his bets from now on.

March review: +34 units (+2,45% ROI)

Another month in the books and it was one with many faces. The best face was the fact that Bet Alchemist absolutely crushed it at Cheltenham – that big horse racing event that everyone into horse racing is talking about. I’m more into the results and I was just as happy with that.

The sad face is the golf face. My two tipsters in that area can’t seem to hit a fairway at the moment. Such is golf betting though, but I hope luck will turn soon.

Summary

General stats March 2018

Sports

Stats per sport March 2018

Tipsters

I finally added a tennis tipster. I decided to go for “Nishi Kori” from Pyckio.com, as he passed all my tests after a pretty short test period, is a hall of famer at the Secret Betting Club and has gotten nice review from them. He introduced himself in the best possible way, with 134 units in profits the first month!

A more worrying trend is that Football Investor is having a tough season with just around +3% ROI so far. March ended 81 units down.

Stats per tipster March 2018

As I was trialing Nishi Kori, I stumbled upon another very interesting tipster at Pyckio – Fut Unver and the more I saw from him the more I liked it. The betting strategy, the results, and ont least that I was able to get even better odds than he quoted I decided to actually take him onboard. This was not planned, but there’s too much to like about him not to. He will be in the portfolio from April 1st (no joke).

This means I’m currently following 10 tipsters, which is practically the max I’ve set for myself to actually run this portfolio in a convenient way. That said, I do still have a few more on my radar…

All in all, I was hoping for a better ending for the month, but still – profit. Let’s hope April brings even more of that.

February review: -106 units (-12.6% ROI)

This one’s way overdue, but anyway. I’m back from my two weeks in Thailand. Back to reality. Turns out placing bets from that location was no bigger issue, so not as big a dip in activity as I might have thought. Perhaps I’d been better off without placing many of the bets though. February was no easy month to make money.

It sounds like I wasn’t the only one having a tough month among the bettors out there, but that’s no real comfort, is it?

Tipsters

Sports

In other news

I’ll just leave it there. The full breakdown is available at Bettin.gs/samuelericson, as always.

January review: -4 units (-0,34% ROI)

A first month of the year that doesn’t leave too many remarks. The new year started out great, with a busy start with loads of bets from smaller football tournaments in Brazil primarily.

Sadly, a blood red weekend awaited, wiping out all the profits in just a few days. The rest of the month was about recovery from that and in the end the portfolio ended up at break-even.

January 2018
January 2018

320 bets in total, 1181 units stakes, a strike rate of about 28%, all ending up with a break-even game.

Tipsters

Tipsters January 2018
Tipsters January 2018

Good month for Bet Alchemist, Football Investor and Danilo Pereira, while the others seemed to underperform. My personal bets were among the worst. A case of hubris after the sweet results lately or just a regression to the mean?

In other news

February will be mostly about grinding the bets out, but it’ll be a shorter month than normal as I’ll be going to Thailand for a couple of weeks and have no plans to place any bets during that time. After all, I’m on vacation…

I’ve also more or less decided to add a tennis tipster I’ve been keeping an eye on. That has to wait until March though, as long as the good performance keeps the same high level until then.

That’s all. Onwards and upwards.

Into 2018

New year, new possibilities. As they say.

I will be making some adjustments in the portfolio for the new year – things I’ve been planning to do for months, just waiting for the new year.

New tipsters

Danilo Pereira, Brazilian football tipster, betting on the Asian Handicaps in Brazil and a few other South American competitions. I’ve been trialing his service since September and I’m now ready to take him on board. Quite a busy one, so he’ll most likely make a mark.

Swingform, another golf tipster. I’m really enjoying betting on golf and that’s one of the reasons I’m taking another tipster into the portfolio. The other one being the results shown so far and money to be made, obviously. I’ve been trialing the service since May and despite the ups and downs in numbers (such is golf) I’m adding it from Jan 1st.

Tipsters out

I’m a bit sad to see two of my most active tipsters go, but that’s the reality for both All Weather Profits and Jason James. This is due to two reasons: The first and most important one is that there hasn’t been too much profit lately. All Weather Profits shows +0,99% ROI over the last year (about 10 units won) and Jason James has been pretty much broken even the last 18 months.

The other reason is that I’ve found I simply have no interest in horse racing. Both of these are busy racing tipsters with loads of wisdom, but for me it’s all about the numbers. Long losing runs are harder to cope with when you don’t have a clue about form or reasons behind it and the time it takes to place all bets is just now worth it if there’s no fun or excitement in it. That said, both services have proven to be profitable in the long run and I wouldn’t hesitate to recommend them both to anyone with the slightest interest in horse racing.

With these two out, it means I have only two horse racing tipsters left in the portfolio – Master Racing Tipster and Bet Alchemist. Both of them are low workload tipsters with great track records. That suits me better.

Also, Winabobatoo, not really a tipster but a service, but I’ve decided to let that one live outside the portfolio as one of the sources that I base my personal bets on.

Adjustments

I’ll be increasing the stakes slightly for Pro Footy Tips. With an ROI of 16,85% from his 319 bets so far, I’m ready to invest a little more in his tips. This means that for each point from him (his scale is 1-5) I’ll be betting 2 units (my scale is 1-10). It’s been 1,5 units so far.

I’ll also be upping the stakes for Bet Alchemist a bit. His bets are usually one point. I’ll be putting on 3 units for each of them.

I’ve also already upped the stake for my least busy tipster On The Oche. The stake for each of his points is now 6 units. This is due to the fact that there was only one bet higher than 1 unit from him during last year and with a track record like his, there’s no need to hold back the stakes. It’s a great darts service to follow.

Other changes

I was hoping to add a basket tipster to the portfolio, but have decided I need more time to analyze his service before making a decision. I would like to add one basket tipster and one tennis tipster to diversify the portfolio, but good ones are hard to find. Any tips? Would love to try a few out.

The portfolio

As it stands at the start of the new year, here are the 8 services included:

Unless I stumble upon that tennis or basket service, this is pretty much I hope the portfolio will look during 2018.

Here’s to another great year of betting!

December review: +156 units (+11,8% ROI)

An excellent end of the year with pretty much all sports performing well. This concludes a betting year that I’ll try to sum up in a separate blog post, but until then, here are the numbers for December.

A total of 378 bets shows that this portfolio thing can be quite busy, not least during the holidays. The ROI is great for the second month in a row. Something that makes me really look forward to 2018. There will be some changes in the portfolio (more on that in yet another blog post), but hopefully that will make the numbers even better.

Tipsters

I might have been a bit too active with my personal tips this month. 74 of them is a bit too much as I don’t want to be the most active tipster in my own portfolio. I’m going to be more selective going forward.

It’s also a bit ironic that Jason James had such a great month just as I decided to remove him from the portfolio together with All Weather Profits, while Master Racing Tipster and Bet Alchemist, the two horse racing tipsters I’ve decided to keep had such a lousy month.

I’m glad I decided to keep On The Oche though, as he had a great PDC World Championship.

Football Investor continues his great form together with Pro Footy Tips, while I’m still struggling to really find the best way to use Winabobatoo’s numbers. Still don’t know how to get around this, but there’s still time to test some new options before the season’s over.

Sports

The ice hockey bets are all my own, and that’s where my own bets continue to shine. In 2018, the horse racing category won’t be that dominant.

In other news

More about the changes I’m making in 2018 in another blog post, as I mentioned. There are some new tipsters coming in, others leaving and some changes in my staking plan. There will also be another post summing up 2018.

Stay tuned.

November review: +149.8 units (+12.5% ROI)

 

Time flies, and I almost forgot to post the review for last month. That would be a shame, because it was a good month.

November 2017
November 2017

 

It started out pretty much like the previous months though, so I was almost preparing for a few weeks of struggling after the initial success.

In the end, it turned out just alright with the golfing being the top performing sport, like it usually is when a winner is found. On the more negative side, my busiest horse racing tipsters are once again the ones that perform the worst.

Graph for november 2017 

Sports

Decent numbers all overs, only horse racing failing to make a profit (except for the one ice hockey bet).

Tipsters

Looking a bit closer at the tipsters section, it’s Jason James and All Weather Profits that stands for the major part of the red numbers. It’s a bit worrying and at least one of them will be part of some changes I’m planning to make for the new year. More on that later this month.

Pro Footy Tips, Golf Betting Expert and Master Racing Tipster – all from the Betting Gods network – had splendid months. As had Bet Alchemist, who’s had a few very nice first months here in the portfolio.

On the Oche is such a nice service to follow, but the bets are quite few and far between, so I’m not sure how to do it next year. Need to decide in the next few days.

Not a lot of success among the English football tipsters (Winabobatoo and Football Investor) this month, while my own 32 bets showed a healthy +10.5% ROI.

 

In other news

All in all I staked 1200 units with a strike rate of 27.5%. A bit lower in both units and percent than expected. I haven’t dug more into why that is though. That’s for another time.

 

That’s all for now. Cheers!

October review: +11.6 units (+0.78% ROI)

October 2017
October 2017
October 2017

October ended with a very small profit and that’s something I’m very happy with. Most of the days were just part of a losing streak, and placing the bets weren’t much fun most of the time.

It’s almost spooky how similar October was to September. They both started out with a boom, which was followed by a losing streak for most of the month, followed by a couple of outstanding days to save the month. Just compare the graphs below.

October
September
October

Interestingly enough, November is starting out the same way, going 86 units up after just 4 days! Fingers crossed this month wont face the same destiny as the ones before.

Let’s take a look at the stats for October.

Sports

Fascinating to see that football was the only sport making profit. All thanks to Football Investor, who had an incredible day with 8 winning bets from 9 on the last Saturday, all with respectable odds.

Stats per sport October 2017
Stats per sport October 2017

Tipsters

Stats per tipster October 2017
Stats per tipster October 2017

A red month for All Weather Profits was the one thing that made the most negative impact, while Football Investor pretty much saved the month all by himself.

Not much more to say really. I will make no changes to staking or in the portfolio for the rest of the year. Just keep grinding the bets out.

In other news

I have a couple of very interesting tipsters in my trials portfolio that I’m hoping to add to the mix shortly. If everything goes according to plan, they will be a part of the minor changes I’ll do as the new year starts.

I’m thinking about adding a few tipsters and making small adjustments to my staking plan at the same time. I’m also planning to phase out one of the horse racing tipsters, but more on that when we’re getting closer to the end of the year.

That’s all for now. Cheers!

15 000 bets

I just passed 15 000 bets registered at Bettin.gs. They are divided on a quite big amount of tipsters and services, but for some of them I can be pretty sure I’m reaching some kind of statistical significance.

Ordered by number of bets, here are the top tipsters based on those 15 013 bets.

Most active tipsters from the first 15 000 bets.
Most active tipsters from the first 15 013 bets.

Nice to see most of them are in the green, including my own bets (listed as “No tipster”), with a 3.55% ROI. Better than many paid tipsters, ironically. Also interesting to see that there are a few up there I’m not following anymore, for other reasons than the results.

The first bets were registered in January 2014, so it’s taken a while to reach it. Also worth noticing this is just the official portfolio.  I have another account to track potential tipsters. Those numbers are a less nice to analyze for obvious reasons. I might dig a little deeper into that here some time as well.

September review: +88.5 units (+7.54%)

88 units is pretty close to what I’m aiming for per month, so just looking at the numbers I’m happy. There is more to see if you look a bit closer though.

One of the first thing that happened this September was that I managed to lay France as they got a draw against Luxembourg, which meant 100 units profit in one move. A nice play (I love laying ridiculously huge favorites) that I’m very happy with, but that also means I personally pulled off all the profit myself this month and that’s not how this portfolio thing is suppose to work.

Tipsters

Looking a little closer at the numbers per tipster, this is how it looks:

I’ve missed a couple of winning bets from Jason James, so there’s room for improvement there. Golf Betting Expert found a 75 odds winner, which made up  much of the month’s profit and notably Pro Footy Tips had a lovely football month.

The same can’t be said for Football Investor and Winabobatoo, who has had a car crash opening of the season. Luckily it’s super early still.

Bet Alchemist lost a few units, but nothing spectacular about that. He’s a had a cracking period so far so that’s nothing unexpected.

In other news…

Ice hockey season has started and I’ve got a new favorite live betting strategies that has shown to be very successful so far. I need more time to see if it holds up over time, but nevertheless it’s great to have hockey going again.

All in all a decent month in many ways and still many ways to improve. Here’s to the next one, it’s time for high season!